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The variety of satellites orbiting Earth has elevated dramatically in recent times, however Russia says a few of these objects might grow to be navy targets if the US and its allies do not change course. The veiled risk would not name out Elon Musk’s SpaceX by title, however Russian officers can solely be referring to Starlink, which has supplied connectivity in Ukraine in the course of the Russian invasion. However is that this simply extra saber-rattling from a rustic trying to avoid wasting face?

Early within the invasion, SpaceX pledged to activate Starlink service in Ukraine, and it got here by means of. Starlink has supplied an necessary line of communication for Ukraine, in addition to serving to to manage navy belongings like drones. Attacking Starlink’s constellation is just not exterior Russia’s talents, however it could be a big escalation of tensions with the west. Russia examined an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile in late 2021, turning a derelict satellite tv for pc right into a cloud of harmful particles. NASA and different area businesses condemned the take a look at due to the elevated hazard to the Worldwide House Station. Even small fragments may cause critical injury in orbit, which is one motive the US is searching for to ban orbital weapon exams.

Based on Konstantin Vorontsov of the Russian Overseas Ministry, “quasi-civilian infrastructure might grow to be a respectable goal for retaliation.” Moscow has been shamed on the world stage following its botched invasion of Ukraine, which was alleged to be a “particular operation” that wrapped up in a number of days. As an alternative, Ukraine pressured Russia to desert its siege of Kyiv and continues to push its troops again towards the border.

The American broomstick is flying, Dimon.  What now?

A single Falcon 9 launch can add as much as 60 nodes to the Starlink community.

Even when Russia threw warning to the wind and began selecting off Starlink satellites, it is unlikely it might do a lot to wreck the community. There are over 2,000 of them in orbit, and each Falcon 9 launch can add as much as 60 extra. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has famous that it may launch new satellites quicker than Russia (or anybody else) can shoot them down. And SpaceX is simply the primary to succeed in this level. The reusable Falcon 9 rocket makes it less expensive to get satellites into orbit, however reusable launch automobiles will ultimately grow to be commonplace. This might result in a brand new era of ASAT expertise, however the present technique of taking pictures a missile at a single satellite tv for pc is little greater than a nuisance.

At present, Starlink service covers a large swath of North America and Europe, plus some areas of South America and Australia. Protection is predicted to increase dramatically within the subsequent yr or two as SpaceX begins deploying bigger Starlink v2 satellites — simpler to explode? Possibly, however SpaceX will nonetheless be launching quicker than anybody can shoot them down. Starlink v2 is reliant on launching the delayed Starship rocket, an orbital take a look at of which is predicted later this yr.

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